Christian democrats, greens, and social democrats gain support in Europe – ALDE down in Croatia

2019-05-02 Croatia EU Poll of polls

Polls from across the EU show increasing support for the parties in the the christian democrat EPP, the Greens/EFA, and the social democratic S&D groups of the European Parliament in the past two months. In Croatia liberals are down by 3.0 points.

This analysis is based on 269 polls conducted between March 1 and April 30, 2019. The polls have been gathered and aggregated by POLITICO. More about the methodology below.

European People's Party (EPP) is the group that seems to be making the largest gain. It is up by 0.7 points to 21.0 percent. Here are some of the national parties belonging to EPP that are particularly gaining ground:

  • Fidesz - Hungarian Civic Union & KDNP (Hungary): +3.6 points to 54.4 percent
  • Christian Democratic Appeal (Netherlands): +2.8 points to 13.9 percent
  • National Liberal Party (Romania): +2.1 points to 26.2 percent

Greens-European Free Alliance (Greens/EFA) and Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D;) are also up in the latest polls by 0.4 and 0.3 points.

The EP group with the biggest decrease across the continent is the liberal ALDE, down by 0.4 points. These are the national parties of ALDE that have made the largest losses:

  • Estonian Centre Party (Estonia): -5.0 points to 20.0 percent
  • Estonian Reform Party (Estonia): -3.1 points to 23.8 percent
  • Marjan Šarec List (Slovenia): -2.3 points to 16.6 percent
Polling support for EU parliament groups at the end of April
EP groupSupport2-month change
ALDE13.6%-0.4 points
ECR7.8%+0.1 points
EPP21.0%+0.7 points
GUE/NGL7.8%-0.1 points
Greens/EFA7.1%+0.4 points
M5S3.0%-0.1 points
New or uncategorized11.5%-0.1 points
S&D;17.7%+0.3 points
Salvini's Alliance9.8%0.0 points

Theses numbers are based on the weighted average of the polling support for each parliament group in each member state. The countries are weighted by their seat share in the new parliament. The mapping of national parties to EP groups is done by POLITICO.

Source:

One of the big trends we expect to see in the 2019 elections is the rise of populist, nationalist and eurosceptic parties. The newly established European Alliance of Peoples and Nations, led by Matteo Salvini, and the conservative and eurosceptic ECR currently poll at 17.6 percent.

As the composition of parliament groups have changed since the previous election polling levels are not fully comparable to the results from 2014.

Results in 2014 EP election
EP groupVote share 2014
ALDE9.3%
ECR6.4%
EPP28.4%
GUE/NGL7.4%
Greens/EFA6.4%
S&D;22.5%

The vote shares for the 2014 EU Parliament election have to be taken with a grain of salt. They are computed as a weighted mean of the vote shares of each parliament group in every country. Each country is weighted according to the number of seats in the parliament. In some cases the elected members of a coalition of parties are split into multiple EP groups. In Ireland for example the Independents joined three different parliament groups. In those rare cases we assume each parliament group to have received a third of the votes, as the official results don't include a detailed breakdown.

The numbers don't add up to 100 percent as the votes of non elected parties are not presented.

ALDE is losing support in Croatia

In Croatia seven polls were recorded between March 1 and April 30, 2019. S&D; has gained support in the polls, while ALDE, EPP, and M5S have lost support.

In Croatia we are analyzing polls for the EU Parliament elections.The the most recent poll is from April 29, 2019.

Polling support EU parliament groups in Croatia in April
EP groupPartiesSupport2-month change
ALDEAmsterdam coalition, Croatian People's Party-Liberal Democrats, and Pametno - Intelligently12.5%-3.0 points
EPPCroatian Democratic Union27.9%-2.1 points
M5SHuman Shield9.7%-1.1 points
New or uncategorizedBandić Milan 365 - Labour and Solidarity Party, Bridge of Independent Lists, and Independents for Croatia13.6%-5.2 points
S&D;Social Democratic Party19.7%+0.3 points
Source:

POLITICO presents more has more in-depth polling data for Croatia at pollofpolls.eu.

About this analysis

This report is based on data collected and aggregated by POLITICO through the affiliated site pollofpolls.eu.

POLITICO use statistical models to compute trend lines for national parties in all EU countries based on local polls. The trend line represent the current likely support of each party.

In countries with frequent polls on the EP election we use these in our aggregation (Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Germany, Denmark, Estonia, France, Greece, Croatia, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Sweden, and Slovenia). In countries with few or no EP polls we analyze national parliament surveys (Belgium, Spain, Finland, United Kingdom of Great Britain, Ireland, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, and Slovakia).

We aggregate the national support for each party to a weighted European mean of each EU parliament group. Each party is weighted based on the number of seats that the country holds in the parliament.

We don't know for sure what EU parliament groups the national parties will join (if they get any seats). Parties are categorised into EU parliament groups by POLITICO, as follows:

  • Parties currently represented in the parliament are assumed to remain in their groups.
  • The parties that are not in the parliament, but have been before, are assumed to return to their previous groups.
  • Parties founded after the 2014 election are categorised as “new” until otherwise reported. This categorization is done manually and may not be fully comprehensive.

The polling data is made available by POLITICO under the a CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license.


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