Polls from across the EU show increasing support for the parties in the the christian democrat EPP, the Greens/EFA, and the social democratic S&D groups of the European Parliament in the past two months. In Romania social democrats are down by 2.8 points.
This analysis is based on 269 polls conducted between March 1 and April 30, 2019. The polls have been gathered and aggregated by POLITICO. More about the methodology below.
European People's Party (EPP) is the group that seems to be making the largest gain. It is up by 0.7 points to 21.0 percent. Here are some of the national parties belonging to EPP that are particularly gaining ground:
- Fidesz - Hungarian Civic Union & KDNP (Hungary): +3.6 points to 54.4 percent
- Christian Democratic Appeal (Netherlands): +2.8 points to 13.9 percent
- National Liberal Party (Romania): +2.1 points to 26.2 percent
Greens-European Free Alliance (Greens/EFA) and Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D;) are also up in the latest polls by 0.4 and 0.3 points.
The EP group with the biggest decrease across the continent is the liberal ALDE, down by 0.4 points. These are the national parties of ALDE that have made the largest losses:
- Estonian Centre Party (Estonia): -5.0 points to 20.0 percent
- Estonian Reform Party (Estonia): -3.1 points to 23.8 percent
- Marjan Šarec List (Slovenia): -2.3 points to 16.6 percent
|EP group||Support||2-month change|
|New or uncategorized||11.5%||-0.1 points|
|Salvini's Alliance||9.8%||0.0 points|
One of the big trends we expect to see in the 2019 elections is the rise of populist, nationalist and eurosceptic parties. The newly established European Alliance of Peoples and Nations, led by Matteo Salvini, and the conservative and eurosceptic ECR currently poll at 17.6 percent.
As the composition of parliament groups have changed since the previous election polling levels are not fully comparable to the results from 2014.
|EP group||Vote share 2014|
The vote shares for the 2014 EU Parliament election have to be taken with a grain of salt. They are computed as a weighted mean of the vote shares of each parliament group in every country. Each country is weighted according to the number of seats in the parliament. In some cases the elected members of a coalition of parties are split into multiple EP groups. In Ireland for example the Independents joined three different parliament groups. In those rare cases we assume each parliament group to have received a third of the votes, as the official results don't include a detailed breakdown.
The numbers don't add up to 100 percent as the votes of non elected parties are not presented.
S&D is losing support in Romania
In Romania three polls were recorded between March 1 and April 30, 2019. EPP has gained support in the polls, while S&D; has lost support.
In Romania we are analyzing polls for the EU Parliament elections.The the most recent poll is from April 3, 2019.
|EP group||Parties||Support||2-month change|
|ALDE||Alliance of Liberals and Democrats and Pro Romania Party||20.6%||0.0 points|
|EPP||People's Movement Party, National Liberal Party, and Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania||36.1%||+2.2 points|
|New or uncategorized||Save Romania Union + PLUS||15.4%||+1.0 points|
|S&D;||Social Democratic Party||24.0%||-2.8 points|
POLITICO presents more has more in-depth polling data for Romania at pollofpolls.eu.
About this analysis
This report is based on data collected and aggregated by POLITICO through the affiliated site pollofpolls.eu.
POLITICO use statistical models to compute trend lines for national parties in all EU countries based on local polls. The trend line represent the current likely support of each party.
In countries with frequent polls on the EP election we use these in our aggregation (Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Germany, Denmark, Estonia, France, Greece, Croatia, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Sweden, and Slovenia). In countries with few or no EP polls we analyze national parliament surveys (Belgium, Spain, Finland, United Kingdom of Great Britain, Ireland, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, and Slovakia).
We aggregate the national support for each party to a weighted European mean of each EU parliament group. Each party is weighted based on the number of seats that the country holds in the parliament.
We don't know for sure what EU parliament groups the national parties will join (if they get any seats). Parties are categorised into EU parliament groups by POLITICO, as follows:
- Parties currently represented in the parliament are assumed to remain in their groups.
- The parties that are not in the parliament, but have been before, are assumed to return to their previous groups.
- Parties founded after the 2014 election are categorised as “new” until otherwise reported. This categorization is done manually and may not be fully comprehensive.
The polling data is made available by POLITICO under the a CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license.